[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE ALONG 26N80W 23N90W. A NEW COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N89W 28N94W 26.5N96.5W
22N96.5W. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 93W AND 96.5W.
EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 12 FEET FROM 21.5N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 96.5W. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS

CURRENT CONDITIONS...COLD FRONT FROM 27N82W TO 21N92W. WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FEET.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
9N13W TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 6N36W 4N46W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W
AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 27N/28N BETWEEN 81W AND
82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN
74W AND 77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 95W/96W FROM 21N TO 28N. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS TEXAS...EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...BEYOND 28N100W ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N80W TO 21N86W AND TROUGH FROM
19N92W TO 22N96W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 26N81W TO 26N88W TO 19N96W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...FEW LOW CLOUDS IN PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI. FEW
TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-EAST ORIENTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...
WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM THE SECTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF
80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS AND BEYOND CUBA...TO THE BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N83W 20N84W 17N85W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
HONDURAS NORTHWARD...ACROSS BELIZE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO THE WEST OF 83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 14N80W
12N72W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.14 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA...AND
BEYOND 81W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF
76W...MOST PROBABLY NOT RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ISOLATED
MODERATE IN COLOMBIA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO
7N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...SEA HEIGHTS
HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 14N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W AND ALSO
FROM 09N TO 11N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO
27N46W TO 20N50W 16N53W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO
27N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 130 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FRONT FROM 24N TO 28N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND
50W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THIS WIND
FLOW IS RELATED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA AND MAURITANIA. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N16W TO 30N25W AND 25N40W.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N47W TO 28N61W 25N69W...TO ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT....A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N79W 28N81W. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 74W. EXPECT
ALSO...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LINE 25.5N35W 19N61W 14N60W 07N51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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