[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AT 31/0000 UTC. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY MONRING WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS TRAILING THE FRONT FROM 22N-24N W OF 95W THEN S OF 21N W OF
94W THROUGH TUE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N22W 5N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W
ATLC AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES ARE GIVING THE
GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS AT
29/2100 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY ALONG 25N85W TO THE NW
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E
EXTENDING FROM 25N84W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W GULF EXTENDING ALONG 96W FROM 22N-27N WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SE OVERNIGHT AND STALL FROM FLORIDA KEYS TO NW YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON MON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT AND E OF THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH BUT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF ON MON
MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE SE MERGING WITH THE STALLED FRONT FROM
SW FLORIDA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT EARLY
ON MON PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF MON
NIGHT AND TUE. THE STALLED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO 22N94W TO THE SW GULF BY LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
THEN N INTO THE W ATLC. THE WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN IS MERGING WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AS IT APPROACHES AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF W CUBA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W TO
18N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN
THROUGH TUE AND MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN ON MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MERGE
WITH THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE
BECOMING STATIONARY.

...HISPANIOLA...
TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING. NW TO N
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO
BEYOND BERMUDA. A COLD FRONT ENTERED THE FAR W ATLC AT 29/2100
UTC EXTENDING FROM CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND ST. AUGUSTINE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180
NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 23N54W TO 12N55W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N38W 28N45W TO 26N54W WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N41W 27N44W TO 24N48W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE FRONT E OF 47W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER SPAIN. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E REACHING FROM NEAR 31N72W TO SE FLORIDA
MON AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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