[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
IN 12 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE ALONG 26N80W 23N90W. A
NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N89W TO
28N94W TO 26N95W TO 21N96.5W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 21N TO 25N TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 25N TO 27N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N12W TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 4N26W 4N30W
4N35W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W AND 45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND ELSEWHERE TO
THE WEST OF 45W. A CELL OF STRONG PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15
TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 1N1W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO
24N85W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 24N85W TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 33N71W 31N74W 28N76W
25N79W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM 22N TO 27N. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH.

A SECOND COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
WEST OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO
THE WEST OF 93W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N80W TO 21N86W AND TROUGH FROM
19N92W TO 22N96W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 26N81W TO 26N88W TO 19N96W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE
AIRPORT IN SANTIAGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-EAST ORIENTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...
WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM THE SECTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 12N.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS AND BEYOND CUBA...TO THE BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N84W...TO 19N84W...TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
HONDURAS NORTHWARD...ACROSS BELIZE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO THE WEST OF 84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 14N80W
12N73W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.14 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 84W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W...MOST
PROBABLY NOT RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 76W
AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 17N TO
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO
26N44 W TO 20N50W 16N54W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO
28N42W AND 26N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MDOERATE
TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THIS WIND
FLOW IS RELATED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA AND MAURITANIA. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO
27N27W...25N39W AND 23N49W.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N46W TO 28N58W 24N68W...TOWARD THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N36W 27N45W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST WINDS WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 42W. EXPECT
ALSO...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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