[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Dec 24 11:57:44 CST 2013

AXNT20 KNHC 241800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WIND SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 27N82W 23N87W 18N92W. GALE-
FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 17 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT ALSO
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12
FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM
30N89W TO 22N98W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN LIBERIA...AND IT STOPS
THERE. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W TO
4N27W TO 2N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W
AND 28W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...
TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 23N TO
28N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO
THE EAST OF 94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF
THE COLD FRONT...AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH TEXAS TO 20N97W IN COASTAL
MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE REFER
TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

THE TAMPA FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING A HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PUNTA GORDA
AND THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN CLEARING IN NAPLES FLORIDA FOR THE LAST
OBSERVATION. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN
AREA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N69W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 6N IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TO 28N IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 77W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
65W/66W FROM 10N TO 20N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 26N
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 53W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 71W
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER STARTS IN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THEN IT MOVES TO 20N60W BY
48 HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS BASED ON THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE
CYCLONIC CENTER. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL BECOME
ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT WITH TIME IN A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH STARTS ALONG THE LINE FROM NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE. THE INVERTED TROUGH ENDS UP
ALONG THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT THE END OF 48 HOURS. THE WIND
FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA STARTS AS NORTHEASTERLY...IT BECOMES
PURELY CYCLONIC FOR MOST OF THE TIME...AND THEN IT ENDS AS
SOUTHEASTERLY.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 70W...
IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.99 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.41 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.04
IN ST. THOMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
BEYOND 84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF
75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 18N69W 15N74W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOROCCO TO 21N25W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS...THROUGH
29N24W...TO A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N44W...TO 33N58W...TO 31N66W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N78W 28N81W. NORTHWEST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N
TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 52W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 65W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE 27N35W 29N50W 29N65W 25N76W...
AND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net