[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE TAMPA
BAY REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W SW INTO TO THE SW GULF NEAR
20N92W TO 18N93W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING S OF 21N W OF THE FRONT.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
05N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N14W TO 04N17W TO 04N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 20W-26W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 34W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
THE TAMPA BAY REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W SW INTO THE SW GULF
NEAR 20N92W TO 18N93W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF
THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW GULF THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF PRODUCING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WITHIN 300 NM NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE ONLY AREA OF MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION IS FOUND S OF 22N BETWEEN 89W-94W...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
OTHERWISE...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY AND REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30
KT...OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNING AREA...AS A STRONG RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY ONLY TO BE
REINFORCED EARLY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE SAGS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW CENTER AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
LOW CARRY MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 71W. THE LOW IS
STRONG ENOUGH ALOFT TO REFLECT A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 13N64W TO 20N63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT
WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N79W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
29N81W AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18N67W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER
GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 54W-68W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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