[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
S OF 21N W OF 92W UNTIL 25/0000 UTC. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC/TAFB HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W TO 4N30W TO 2N45W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 35W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO W CUBA TO JUST N OF COZUMEL MEXICO NEAR
21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE LIGHTING DETECTION SYSTEM ALSO SHOWS A
SMALL AREA OF LIGHTNING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19.5N92W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF.
SEE ABOVE. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW GULF. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE NE GULF. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...AND IN THE 70'S OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING
SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER
THE SW GULF AND CONTINUED FAIE WEATHER OVER THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N66W TO 11N68W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER BELIZE...
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N68W ENHANCING
THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 3N.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO MOVE BACK TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH
THE TRADEWINDS. EXPECT A FEW MORE SHOWERS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N76W TO FREEPORT
BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. 20-25 NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N45W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SW OF
PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 58W-70W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N62W TO
CENTRAL CUBA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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