[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM SENEGAL TO GUINEA-BISSAU...THROUGH
GUINEA...TO 10N15W...CURVING TO 5N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N21W TO 4N32W 4N38W...AND TO 2N50W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 41W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 10W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE
WEST OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W TO 23N93W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N59W 27N70W 21N76W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE LINE 32N71W 26N80W 22N90W 21N97W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N64W...ACROSS ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 27N72W...22N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO
16N86W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.91 IN BERMUDA...AND FOR THE TIME PERIOD
ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC...0.84 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO
25N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SECONDARY RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO BELIZE TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGBK...
KATP...AND KMYT. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

THE VISIBILITIES IN LOUISIANA BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND PATTERSON
HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 MILES OR LESS DURING THE LAST
THREE TO FOUR HOURS. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING IN THE KEY WEST
FLORIDA AREA...AFTER MANY HOURS OF REPORTS OF MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 24N84W 21N95W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES WESTERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN PART. FEW TO SCATTERED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST
ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA TOWARD
JAMAICA...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AFTER REACHING JAMAICA. THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM COLOMBIA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...REACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER CROSSING
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WIND FLOW BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N78W AT THE COAST
OF CUBA...TO 16N86W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.91 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC WERE...0.84 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...
0.26 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE AND IN SAN JUAN IN
PUERTO RICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND
83W IN SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N84W ALONG THE COSTA
RICA PACIFIC OCEAN COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W IN THE GULF OF
URABA OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
12N BETWEEN 77W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 82W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 11N.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND 73W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N59W 27N70W
21N76W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N29W TO 32N37W 30N48W 28N60W AND 23N70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MOROCCO
33N7W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 21N26W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...TO 18N25W 14N29W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 14N29W TO 15N35W AND AND 15N46W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
ALONG 52W/53W FROM 14N TO 22N. A SURGE IN THE WIND FIELD/AN
AIRMASS CHANGE IS NOTED ALONG 20N24W 16N30W 17N38W 20N44W
23N46W...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N66W 23N81W. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 60W. A SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF
61W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LINE 28N45W 25N60W 23N71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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