[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 09N15W. THE AXIS RESUMES WEST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR 07N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N27W TO 02N40W TO
0S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-06N E OF 30W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM WESTERN CUBA
TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER
GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THE STABILITY ALOFT
ANCHORED BY A TRIO OF HIGHS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS TO A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THURSDAY E-SE FLOW WILL RE-
ESTABLISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN BELIZE
NEAR 17N88W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WHICH ALONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 17N W OF 80W. IN THE SW BASIN S OF
11N...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY
THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA TO A 1007
MB LOW NEAR 09N77W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN WHICH SUPPORTS
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

HISPANIOLA...
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...A
MOSTLY NORMAL PATTERN OF WINTER TIME TRADES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N67W EXTENDING SW TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO NW CUBA NEAR 23N81W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BECOMING MOSTLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING
GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE
AREAL SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
37N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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