[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 05N10W TO 07N15W TO 03N30W TO 03N40W TO THE EQUATOR
NEAR 48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N
BETWEEN 13W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR 33N84W TO A
BASE OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY
AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT TO MUCH OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE EXISTENCE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W SW TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THE STABILITY ALOFT
ANCHORED BY A TRIO OF HIGHS ANALYZED FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO A STRONG 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THURSDAY E-SE FLOW WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS AS AN AREA LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 71W BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-76W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AMPLE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W SW TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...IN TANDEM WITH THE FAVORABLE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 80W-89W...WITH
THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW E OF 71W REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND CONDITIONS NOTED FOR HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THESE SHOWERS REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT PREVAIL
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL STABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE.
LOOKING AHEAD...A MOSTLY NORMAL PATTERN OF WINTER TIME TRADES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH WINDS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W EXTENDING SW TO
THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BECOMING
MOSTLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AREAL SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N42W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 32N26W TO
28N34W BUT CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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