[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W TO 4N23W
4N36W AND 3N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 22N98W
BEYOND 32N76W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES AN
EASTERN U.S.A.-TO-LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 22N98W 32N76W
LINE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE 32N77W 25N90W 23N98W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N71W...ACROSS ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TOUCHING THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 320 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 23N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND
32N64W NEAR BERMUDA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 32N71W-TO-NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-MEXICO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N99W IN COASTAL
MEXICO... TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
EVENTUALLY TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KEMK...
KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KSPR...KATP...KIPN...KMYT...KMDJ...AND
KDLP. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...
KMZG...KVAF...AND KEIR. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

THE VISIBILITY AT LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA NOW IS REPORTING 8 MILES
AFTER REPORTS OF 1 TO 3 MILES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE
CLOUD CONDITION AT PATTERSON LOUISIANA IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH A
VERTICAL VISIBILITY OF 200 FEET. BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA IS
REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST PLAINS FROM THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA
SOUTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN MOST OF THE
STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN EXTREME EASTERN
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA TOWARD
JAMAICA...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AFTER REACHING JAMAICA. THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA...
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BECOMING CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W
AND COASTAL BELIZE...COVERING HONDURAS ALSO. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 80W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.83 IN
TRINIDAD...AND 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 76W/77W IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA AND COASTAL
NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
11 TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 82W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND 76W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING
MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 23N80W BEYOND 32N60W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 31N30W. THE FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 31N30W TO 29N36W AND 29N43W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW NEAR THE FRONT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST-TO-
NORTH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N24W 27N30W 27N40W 27N53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N44W TO 28N52W 26N62W 24N68W...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE BORDER OF THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA AND SOUTHERN MOROCCO...THROUGH
WESTERN MAURITANIA...TO 9N23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15W/16W
FROM SOUTHWESTERN MAURITANIA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N72W 24N80W. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 66W. A SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 60W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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