[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH
THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO
7N14W...4N20W 2N30W 1N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 8N TO THE WEST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W 27N72W 22N78W...AND IT COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W
28N75W 24N84W 19N95W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO
31N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N65W...ACROSS
ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR
23N82W...CURVING TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N65W 28N71W 25N76W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF 84W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.91 IN
BERMUDA...AND FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC...0.84
IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...TO THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBQX...
KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...AND KATP. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

THE VISIBILITIES IN EDINBURG...MCALLEN...AND HARLINGEN IN THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS ARE 2 TO 3 MILES. THE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IN...THE
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS METROPOLITAN AREA...IN PORT LAVACA AND IN
BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR...3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG IN LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA...1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
LOUISIANA...1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG AT THE NEW ORLEANS NAVAL AIR
STATION FOR A FEW RECENT OBSERVATIONS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO KEY WEST. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR
SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES WESTERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART. FEW TO SCATTERED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY AND
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE
GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN
RIDGE. EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA TOWARD
JAMAICA...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AFTER REACHING JAMAICA. THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM COLOMBIA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...REACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER CROSSING
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WIND FLOW BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N82W...CURVING TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF 84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.91 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC WERE...0.84 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...
0.26 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE AND IN SAN JUAN IN
PUERTO RICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
85W AT THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
TO THE WEST OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND 78W IN PANAMA...IN THE
GULF OF URABA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 82W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND 73W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N65W 27N72W 22N78W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N27W TO 32N37W 30N48W 28N59W AND 25N64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MOROCCO
33N4W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 20N26W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...TO 16N30W 13N35W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 13N35W TO 14N46W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM
14N TO 22N. A SURGE IN THE WIND FIELD/AN AIRMASS CHANGE IS NOTED
ALONG 20N22W 15N25W 13N39W 22N49W...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 27W
AND 30W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF
61W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LINE 27N45W 25N60W 23N70W. THE 36-HOUR FORECAST
CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT 31N70W 28N80W. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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