[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FROM 10/1800 UTC
TO 11/0000 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT AT 10/0900 UTC
EXTENDS FROM 30N87W TO 27N93W TO 24N97W. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 09N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N16W TO 05N24W TO 05N38W TO 05N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 23W-29W AND FROM 01N-06N
BETWEEN 32W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDES S-SE WIND FLOW IN
THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WHICH ADVECTS DRY
AIR FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. FARTHER
WEST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N88W TO 18N90W WITH
NO CONVECTION. IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
LOUISIANA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
NEAR 30N88W TO 27N93W TO 24N97W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NW GULF AND
SUPPLIES NORTHERLY WIND FROM 25-30 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ALOFT...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR NW BASIN WHERE DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH BETWEEN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM WESTERN JAMAICA NEAR 19N78W TO 14N80W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
76W-82W...INCLUDING JAMAICA. A COL OR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
SHOWERS SOUTH OF 14N E OF 70W. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN BASIN SUPPORTS 20-25
KT WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THU MORNING. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THU MORNING AS MULTI-LAYERED DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N51W BEING SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC
INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
30N32W TO 25N44W TO 28N58W. FARTHER EAST...THE SAME TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 31N25W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 26N24W TO 19N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN
18W-25W AND FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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