[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE NW
OF FRONT S OF 26N W OF 95W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST UNTIL
11/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
7N18W TO 6N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N85W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N95W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 20N96W. A GALE IS NW OF FRONT S OF 26N W OF 95W. 20-
30 KT WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT. OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 40'S ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST AND IN THE 80'S OVER S FLORIDA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT
OVER THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N82W TO 14N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 79W-
85W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 5N75W TO BEYOND
COSTA RICA AT 9N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...
PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA...S OF 10N. ELSEWHERE A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 72W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N80W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OPEN TO A TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT
MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER ALL
OF HISPANIOLA SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N53W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 31N27W TO 25N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E... A 1001 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
32N22W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO 18N29W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 18W-23W.
IN THE TROPICS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 52W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N BETWEEN 50W-80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 50W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net