[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 10/1800 UTC
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT 10/0300 UTC EXTENDS
FROM 30N85W TO 27N94W TO 21N95W. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO
05N28W TO 03N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N
BETWEEN 21W-29W AND FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE SW N ATLC
DOMINATES THE EASTERN AND SW GULF AND PROVIDES S-SE WIND FLOW IN
THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...THERE IS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W SW TO 27N94W TO
21N95W. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
THAT VERY DRY CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 91W-93W. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TUE AFTERNOON
OVERTAKING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND GENERATING GALE FORCE
WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW BASIN WHERE DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN...A
MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM EASTERN JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W TO 13N77W. UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS REGION ENHANCES SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-82W...INCLUDING JAMAICA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN BASIN SUPPORTS 20-25 KT WINDS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT WED AFTERNOON AS MULTI-LAYERED DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N64W BEING SUPPORTED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N35W TO 25N49W TO
30N59W. FARTHER EAST...THE SAME TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A 1004 MB
LOW NEAR 28N26W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 20N31W
TO 17N40W. EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THERE IS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE N OF 16N E OF 28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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