[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 05N13W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N13W
AND CONTINUES TO 04N26W TO 03N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 27W-36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 03N-
08N BETWEEN 20W-25W AND FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 36W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE SW N ATLC
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AND PROVIDES S-SE WIND
FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W
SW TO 23N94W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE
SW N ATLC NEAR 26N67W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT.
WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGHOUT WED AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO NW VENEZUELA. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL TROUGH AXIS
ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 64W-72W AS WELL AS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE MIDDLE-
LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN. FARTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC...AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PROVIDES DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO
SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING
ANALYZED FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW VENEZUELA WHICH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE PASSAGE AND SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ISLAND AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N67W BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 26N66W. VERY DRY AIR IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS
REGION IN SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER W OF 44W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A 1002 MB LOW IS
NEAR 26N37W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ANALYZED
FROM 30N27W SW TO 18N36W TO 13N50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 17W-29W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 28W-34W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 21W-43W.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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