[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091028
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N11W TO 06N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N18W
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W TO 04N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-
07N BETWEEN 18W-25W AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE SW N ATLC
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AND PROVIDES S-SE WIND
FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR
30N88W SW TO 26N92W TO 24N94W. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N93W TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W...HOWEVER THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED IN THE SW N ATLC NEAR 26N67W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. WITHIN 48 HOURS...THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGHOUT WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS S OF 10N. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W SW TO NE COLOMBIA NEAR 11N71W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL TROUGH
AXIS ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 14N-
18N BETWEEN 66W-74W. IN THE MIDDLE-LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. FARTHER EAST OVER
THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PROVIDES
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE SOME OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD
TRACK AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED
AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ISLAND BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL
AS DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
BEING ANALYZED FROM EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W SW TO
NE COLOMBIA NEAR 11N71W WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA E OF 69W...SOUTHERN ISLAND
AND ADJACENT WATERS TO 14N. RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ISLAND AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 26N68W. VERY DRY AIR IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS
REGION IN SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER W OF 45W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A 1003 MB LOW IS
NEAR 29N32W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ANALYZED
FROM 30N26W SW TO 19N32W TO 13N40W WHERE A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES
TO 12N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS N OF 13N EAST OF 27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE N OF 19N BETWEEN 27W-33W. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-NE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SW NORTH ATLC BY TUE AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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