[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...
..A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N39W...WITH A COLD
FRONT 21N35W 14N45W. NORTHWEST TO NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 13 TO 16 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14
FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 48W. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET FROM
16N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 77W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 20N35W TO 13N61W TO THE
BAHAMAS...EXCEPT TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 58W. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO
5N20W 7N33W AND 8N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 28W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE
EAST OF 28W...AND ELSEWHERE TO SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE WESTERNMOST
PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PART
OF LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
26N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 26N94W TO 22N94W AND
19N92W NEAR THE CIUDAD DEL CARMEN IN MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KEHC...
KVBS...AND KSPR. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED
AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATION...KEIR...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED AT KEIR AND AT KBBF DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A
VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO
STATION K9F2...AND ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO OR SO AT KAXO.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
SOME VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL
LOUISIANA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND AT 2 MILES OR LESS
WITH FOG ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 42-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT 30N87W 25N98W. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN
8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 94W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 14N69W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN HISPANIOLA TO THE EAST OF 70W. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ARE ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA. LIGHT RAIN IS REPORTED IN
NORTHWESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.29 IN ST.
THOMAS.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.  AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 28N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 14N69W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
EAST OF 76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 75W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 75W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE
NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N78W IN
EASTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 7N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 5N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 9N IN PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12
FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W AND N OF 15N E OF 79W
INCLUDING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSAGES. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN
76W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N36W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 30N36W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
22N39W 19N46W AND 18N52W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 18N52W TO
17N60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES
WESTWARD FROM 17N60W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 14N69W CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W
TO 26N30W AND 18N38W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 18N38W
TO 14N45W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR THE 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N39W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...FOR MORE DETAILS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE 30N36W 18N52W TROUGH AND THE 18N52W 17N60W SHEAR AXIS.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N69W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
18N TO THE WEST OF 47W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 26N23W
TO 17N28W...ABOUT 160 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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