[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261103
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AXNT20 KNHC DDHHMM
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 6N18W AND 3N25W. THE ITCZ IS
DISRUPTED TO THE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR. ONE PART
OF AN ITCZ STARTS NEAR 2S32W UNTIL 3S37W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 5W AND 9W...
AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM OF THE COAST OF BRAZIL
BETWEEN 47W AND 51W...AND BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 2S TO 3S BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
14N96W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA NORTHWARD.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH
OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 84W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OUTSIDE
THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TO A 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF
THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 26N96W...
THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF
26N TO THE WEST OF 90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N
TO THE WEST OF 93W.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...RAIN/DRIZZLE...AND
VISIBILITIES AT ONE MILE OR LESS ARE IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN ONE MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AREA DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS. THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL
AREAS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. THE REST
OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL STATIONS ARE REPORTING
FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.
THE OBSERVATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AREAS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
SHOW FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KGUL IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY
OF LESS THAN 1 MILE WITH FOG. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX...KGUL...
KGBK...KHQI...KVBS...AND KMYT. THE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE ICAO STATION KIPN HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING
BETWEEN A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND THEN SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N60W TO
24N62W...TO 16N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO ITS BASE NEAR ISLA LA ORCHILA OF VENEZUELA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W...AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE EAST OF
70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N67W 23N67W
18N65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO
31N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND
FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE 24N62W 16N66W
TO ISLA LA ORCHILA TROUGH.

SOME MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 73W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
THAT ORIGINATES IN SOUTH AMERICA...IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 65W.

RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 16N67W 15N76W
11N84W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 8N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N74W IN COLOMBIA
TO 8N76W 7N77W...TO 5N79W IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COLOMBIA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 34N31W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W
AND 50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N22W
26N25W 22N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
22N29W TO 18N40W AND 19N50W. A SECOND COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N30W 25N38W 26N43W
28N47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W
20N30W 16N46W 16N60W 25N68W BEYOND 32N71W

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 20N56W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
16 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 37W AND 48W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR
LESS AND 10 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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