[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260605
TWDAT

AXNT20 KNHC DDHHMM
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 7N16W AND 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 4N22W TO 1N30W...CROSSING THE ITCZ ALONG 33W...
TO 2S36W...TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S42W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
1N TO 3N BETWEEN 6W AND 8W...FROM 1S TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 3W AND 6W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 47W AND 50W IN THE BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N43W 8N48W 11N57W 11N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
14N96W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA NORTHWARD.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH
OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 85W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TO A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF
THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 26N96W...
THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF
26N TO THE WEST OF 90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N
TO THE WEST OF 93W.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SOME VISIBILITIES AT
ONE MILE OR LESS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
SOME PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAINS AREA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THE LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS ARE REPORTING
A MIXTURE OF SOME AREAS WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
AND OTHER PLACES WITH FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET. THE OBSERVATIONS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF LOUISIANA
SHOW FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KGUL IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY
OF LESS THAN 1 MILE WITH FOG. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX...KGBK...
KHQI...KGUL...KVBS...KEIR...KSPR...AND KMYT.
THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ICAO STATION KIPN HAS
BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN A LOW CLOUD CEILING
AND THEN SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N60W TO
25N60W...TO 19N62W...TO 15N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO ITS BASE NEAR ISLA LA ORCHILA
OF VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W
AND 66W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N TO THE EAST OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 29N66W 25N66W 21N65W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND
FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE 19N62W 15N65W
TO ISLA LA ORCHILA TROUGH.

SOME MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 73W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
THAT ORIGINATES IN SOUTH AMERICA...IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 65W.

RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 16N70W 16N77W
12N83W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA
TO COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 6N77W...BEYOND 3N82W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N77W...AND FROM 8N
TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 6 HOUR FORECAST FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 34N32W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W
AND 50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N22W
25N25W 21N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
21N30W TO 18N40W. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N28W TO 29N30W AND 27N36W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N36W TO 26N40W AND
29N46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W
20N30W 16N46W 16N60W 25N68W BEYOND 32N71W

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N53W
TO 22N49W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
18 TO 21 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF
31N48W 29N46W 28N43W 28N37W. EXPECT 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 12 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 31N54W 27N51W
23N48W 21N42W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF 31N64W 29N64W 21N55W 18N47W
20N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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