[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261706
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N14W ALONG 9N18W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N26W 5N35W TO 3N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 4W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 6W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE E
PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE N GULF COAST AND THE
SE CONUS NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. A REMNANT DYING STATIONARY
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA BETWEEN
CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA TO THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA. THE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 89W TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE RIO GRANDE NEAR 26N99W INTO THE GULF
NEAR TAMPICO TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO BETWEEN COATZACOALCOS AND
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SW OVER N GULF THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO SW TO E PANAMA
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWERS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 17N71W TO 19N84W INCLUDING JAMAICA.
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S
OF 11N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADE WINDS
PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT DIPS INTO THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH 32N73W TO OVER
FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH WHERE A DYING STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF
75W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF
PUERTO RICO EXTENDING FROM 28N68W ALONG 23N67W TO 19N66W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC CENTERED NEAR
35N32W WITH A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N32W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDS TO THE E TO 31N27W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG
25N34W 24N42W TO 26N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E AND
S OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 31N23W ALONG 22N28W 18N37W TO 19N51W. A BROAD E/W
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ALONG FROM 10N13W 10N36W THEN SW
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
52W-60W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
E AND DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES FROM 32N70W TO NE FLORIDA FRI
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE W ATLC

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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