[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO
05N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N14W TO 02N19W TO 02N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND
34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS AND EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS
FROM 33N79W TO A BASE NEAR 24N88W. WHILE MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED OVER FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 88W.
THE FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N81W TO 30N86W TO 30N92W AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF 30N OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINIATED BY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW THAT IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR
AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOR STABLE
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. TRADES PERSIST UNDER THESE FAIR
CONDITIONS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-78W...AND IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS AND NE GULF OF
MEXICO...HOWEVER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL HOLDS IN
PLACE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N52W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH
ALSO INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM THE HIGH CENTER NORTHEASTWARD
TO A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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