[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 14W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS AND CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS FROM 34N85W
TO A BASE NEAR 22N92W. WHILE MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED
OVER THE NE GULF AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 89W. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
BASIN...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
LATE THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N76W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR
AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOR STABLE
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. TRADES PERSIST UNDER THESE FAIR
CONDITIONS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-78W...AND IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS AND NE GULF OF
MEXICO...HOWEVER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL HOLDS IN
PLACE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 76W-81W...GENERALLY REMAINING
OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N52W. THIS HIGH ALSO INFLUENCES THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND EXTENDS AN AXIS
FROM THE HIGH CENTER EASTWARD TO 28N40W TO A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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