[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 6N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 6N16W TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-6N BETWEEN 10W-
22W...AND FROM 7S-1S BETWEEN 22W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
NEAR 30N88W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW ALONG THE COAST
OF N FLORIDA TO 29N85W TO E OF ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 30N80W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 27N E OF 70W. MOST OF THE GULF HAS
10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. SW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE S GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE NE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N77W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT RESIDUAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N73W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA.
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LIGHTEST WINDS
ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG
THE COASTS OF PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WARM FRONT HAS ENTERED THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS W OF 30N78W
TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N51W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N45W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LOW
FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 30W-40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION
TO BE NE OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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