[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Apr 15 13:05:37 CDT 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 151805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N16W TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...
TO 3S34W AND 4S39W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
2N TO 3N BETWEEN 13W AND 14W...AND FROM 1N TO 3N
BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N76W TO FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...TO 22N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N78W...TO NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR 29N85W TO THE
SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...TO 30N90W IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 73W
AND 78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 67W AND 85W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC IS 0.98 OF AN INCH.
THE RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE SAME
24-HOUR TIME PERIOD IS 0.18 OF AN INCH...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERTATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ALONG 23N73W BEYOND 32N70W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
94W/95W TO THE NORTH OF 21N.

FAIR SKIES COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME HAZE...AND
HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS...COVERS THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST TOWARD AND INCLUDING IN THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES WITH DRIZZLE ARE BEING REPORTED
IN MOBILE ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION COVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE CENTRAL SECTIONS EASTWARD.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST FROM THE WESTERN PANHANDLE TO
TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE REPORTED
IN PERRY. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. FAIR SKIES ARE
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE
SOUTH OF BROOKSVILLE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LOWER ARE AT THE
TEXAS ICAO STATIONS KBBF AND KGVX.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE ICAO STATIONS
KGUL...KGBK...KMYT...KSPR...AND KHQI.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W...TO 14N80W...TOWARD
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...
THROUGH 8N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N81W IN PANAMA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS FROM 7N TO
10N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W AT 15/0845 UTC. THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS BETWEEN 79W AND 80W WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 6N...TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N
TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. ALSO EXPECT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST
OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N43W TO 26N53W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 43W. THE BROAD
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 31N59W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N59W TO 31N66W TO THE
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST
OF 45W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N47W TO 16N56W...TO 12N59W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W...TO
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N38W...TO A SECOND 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N57W...TO 28N72W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET...TO THE EAST OF
THE LINE FROM 31N42W TO 21N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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