[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 05W TO 05N16W
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER TEXAS AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM
32N100W TO A BASE NEAR 23N104W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOTED EAST OF THE GULF BASIN OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION ALONG 77W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE
GULF NEAR 26N82W AND MEANDERS WESTWARD ALONG 25N84W TO 26N91W TO
THE NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N
BETWEEN 87W-95W. THE CONVECTION IS LARGELY A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AS
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE...CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD BY
LATE SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST ALONG
30N/31N. THEREAFTER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR INDICATES DRY AIR
AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOR STABLE
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. TRADES PERSIST UNDER THESE FAIR
CONDITIONS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-78W...AND IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM ALONG
76W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N80W AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A STATIONARY
FRONT INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND N OF 29N
BETWEEN 66W-75W WHICH IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE NE NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N34W TO 31N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES
TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N49W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 29N TO 22W AND THEN NE TO BEYOND
32N15W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
WWWW
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