[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA...
JUST AWAY FROM THE BORDER WITH SIERRA LEONE NEAR
9N13W...TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...
TO 1S24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1S24W TO 1S28W...
TO 34W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S...TO 1S40W AND THE
BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 5W
AND 10W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W...
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 1N40W...AND FROM 4N TO 5N
BETWEEN 50W AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WELL INLAND.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE U.S.A. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE INLAND TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA THAT NEAR
IS NEAR 27N...ALONG THE COAST TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
CURVING TO 25N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 25N83W TO 27N91W
25N94W...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER...NEAR 25N98W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 75 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N73W 29N76W 26N78W IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST
FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W...AND FROM
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 85W
AND 89W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. THE CEILINGS ARE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AS ONE MOVES NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AT 200 FEET AT
PATTERSON LOUISIANA JUST STARTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED IN THE LAST OBSERVATION. A MIXTURE
OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
SOME HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA COAST FROM NAPLES
TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. FAIR SKIES ARE
OBSERVED FROM TAMPA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE AT THE ICAO STATION
KGVX OFF THE TEXAS COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE AT ICAO STATIONS KGUL...KMYT...KGBK...
KATP...AND KMDJ. ICAO STATION KECH IS
REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1.25 MILES WITH HAZE.
ICAO STATION KSPR REPORTS A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING. THE LOW CLOUD CEILING AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING HAVE STARTED TO BREAK UP AT
ICAO STATION KHQI.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N71W TO 13N79W...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PUSHING THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 85W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 21N85W
16N84W...IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD WITH THE SURFACE-
TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10.5N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. ALSO EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N23W TO 28N36W 20N53W TO 17N61W JUST
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 9N58W THROUGH 20N40W 27N30W 32N19W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 31N40W
AND 31N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W
TO 25N30W AND 23N54W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 29N30W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N54W 28N66W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABACO ISLAND.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12 HOUR FORECAST OF
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM
31N43W TO 29N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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