[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N06W TO
04N07W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N07W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH
AXIS FROM 32N96W TO A BASE NEAR 23N102W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED EAST OF THE GULF BASIN OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION ALONG 72W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE
GULF NEAR 26N82W AND MEANDERS WESTWARD ALONG 26N83W TO 28N90W
WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO 28N93W AND INTO A 1006 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N95W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 85W-94W. THE
CONVECTION IS LARGELY A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AS THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE...CYCLOGENESIS AND THE RESULTANT
LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY WITH A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST ALONG 30N/31N. THEREAFTER
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR INDICATES DRY AIR
AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOR STABLE
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. TRADES PERSIST UNDER THESE FAIR
CONDITIONS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-78W...AND IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 72W.
THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N73W AND EXTENDS SW TO 29N78W THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 27N80W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 66W-74W WHICH IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. FARTHER EAST...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT DRAPES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N26W TO 30N43W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N52W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 28N TO 26W AND
THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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