[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W CONTINUING ALONG 4N15W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N28W 2N41W 2N48W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-12W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS MOVING
NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 12/0900
UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PANAMA CITY THEN ALONG 23N91W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 20N93W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 45 NM OF A
LINE FROM 27N86W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N AND S OF 23N W OF 92W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND
WITHIN IN THE FLORIDA BAY. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR
SARASOTA FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO BY THIS EVENING THEN
STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE FROM FORT MYERS TO NW YUCATAN
MEXICO BY LATE SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
PANAMA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO
THE W ATLC. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST S OF 20N INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN OVER HAITI AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM 14N-18N E OF 71W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS
MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER PANAMA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N74W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
68W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N BETWEEN 40W-68W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 30N53W AND A 1022 MB HIGH IS W OF MERIDA ISLANDS NEAR
33N21W. THE 1023 MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM 32N75W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH
FLORIDA BY LATE SAT. BY LATE SUN THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD N OF 29N REACHING FROM 32N62W TO 30N74W THEN AS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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