[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO
1N24W 1N28W AND 1N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
37W...AND TO THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO
1S BETWEEN 6W AND 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5S BETWEEN 16N AND 26W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WELL INLAND...
FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS BEYOND MISSOURI. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN TEXAS/MEXICO AND 83W/84W. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA-
TO-WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE INLAND TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AREA TO 26N87W 23N90W...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO MEXICO NEAR
18N96W...AND 22N100W IN MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N
TO 29N BETWEEN 82W INLAND AND 88W IN THE GULF WATERS.
IT IS RAINING IN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A HIGH CLOUD
CEILING IS REPORTED IN KINGSVILLE AND AT THE
NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. A FEW
STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA ARE REPORTING FEW HIGH CLOUDS. FAIR SKIES
ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN TEXAS AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND THE TAMPA-
ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA AREA. PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 6000 FEET.
FAIR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 30N85W 19N95W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN
20 KNOTS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LOWER THAN 8 FEET AFTER ABOUT THE NEXT 6 HOURS
OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 6N75W...TO 11N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN
ACROSS AND BEYOND CUBA NEAR 22N81W. THE RIDGE
EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE...TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
17N58W TO 13N59W TO TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG
THE COLOMBIA COAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM 5N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 79W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF 17N82W
15N72W 11N64W. THE CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA ARE
MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W.
ALSO EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF
84W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N14W TO 27N19W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 27N19W
31N37W AND 31N42W.

A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 29N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO 24N49W 24N61W AND 26N63W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
18N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W...AND FROM
27N TO 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 31N14W
26N26W 25N43W 24N56W...TO 30N.

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 29N60W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF THE 29N45W 26N63W TROUGH BETWEEN 48W AND 65W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE...TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 29N32W...
TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N49W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 30N62W...TO 27N72W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
20N84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE 30 HOUR FORECAST
INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST
OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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