[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W CONTINUING ALONG 4N15W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N
BETWEEN 6W-10W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-
27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 2N35W TO 4N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE PLAIN STATES IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 12/0300
UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER
THEN ALONG 25N90W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 20N94W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
27N88W TO INLAND OVER SE CONUS NEAR 30N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 23N88W TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO 16N91W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SKIES ARE
CLEARING WEST OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER PANAMA
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS W CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 26N TO CUBA E OF 82W INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM N FLORIDA TO THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT THEN DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE N GULF SAT AND
SUN. A FRONTAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE SUN. A SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF MON AND TUE WITH MAINLY A SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
PANAMA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE E
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N88W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
16N91W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HAITI AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. THE TRADE
WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER PANAMA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N
ACROSS W CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD COVERING THE FAR W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N
BETWEEN 40W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 30N
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N18W
ALONG 26N35W TO 24N59W. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE ABOVE DISSIPATING FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS SE OF BERMUDA
NEAR 31N62W AND A 1023 MB HIGH IS W OF MERIDA ISLANDS NEAR
33N23W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
PORTION FRI NIGHT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD N OF 27N THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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