[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W CONTINUING TO 5N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W 1N31W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-11W...FROM
1N-4N BETWEEN 24W-36W...AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG THE W
COAST OF NICARAGUA DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 29N. A
SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF NEAR 29N88W N-NE TO
OVER THE E CONUS/NW ATLC NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. THIS SECOND
UPPER RIDGE IS BEING AMPLIFIED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 88W-94W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO
SE LOUISIANA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SE GULF S OF 25N
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE COAST OF CUBA E OF 83W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL ENTER
THE NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND REACH MOBILE BAY TO W BAY OF
CAMPECHE THU EVENING AND FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE
FRI EVENING THEN STALLING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE SW GULF SAT
BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE N ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG THE W COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE
ENTIRE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HAITI AND THE GULF
OF GONAVE AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 75W-82W. A WEAK 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 9N78W. THIS LOW COUPLED
WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-
81W. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 71W TO OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE STRONG WINDS
WILL SET UP EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 10N BETWEEN 35W-70W SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N35W ALONG
26N45W TO 23N55W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG ALONG 22N61W TO 22N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC NW OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N23W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE W ATLC LATE FRI SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD N OF 27N THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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