[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W CONTINUING TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N20W 1N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 3W-8W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
ALONG 4N20W TO 2N33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG THE W
COAST OF NICARAGUA DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N. A
SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N89W N TO
OVER THE E CONUS OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA.
THIS SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS BEING AMPLIFIED BY A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 91W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE N GULF COAST TO SE
LOUISIANA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 83W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH WED BEFORE WEAKENING LATE WED AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WED NIGHT
REACHING MOBILE BAY TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FROM NORTH
FLORIDA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI THEN STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
TO THE SW GULF SAT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG THE W COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE NE CARIBBEAN. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE
ENTIRE BASIN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COASTLINES. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-81W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SAT AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
WILL SET UP EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 35W-75W SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N37W ALONG
27N45W TO 23N55W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 22N60W TO 22N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
W ATLC NW OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH W
OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N68W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SE
CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N22W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W ATLC
LATE FRI SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD N OF 27N THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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