[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 5N18W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N24W EQ37W 3S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 26W-34W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FROM
4Q-EQ BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY DRY AIR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST ATLC AND POURS OVER INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL. DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE BASIN HAS INCREASED SUPPORTING 15-25 KT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER
TEXAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE AXIS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY
AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
BESIDES A FEW AREAS OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
CUBA...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT SPREADS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR STRONG WINDS REACHING 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE FAR WEST ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 32N60W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 57W.
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N30W AND CONTINUES TO 26N46W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG
25N51W 22N59W AND DISSIPATES TO 22N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS AT 31N16W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR EAST ATLC AND WESTERN AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

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