[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N19W 4N24W TO 2N32W WHERE
THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 1N40W  THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-26W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE SE CONUS INTO THE N
GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 01/0900 UTC EXTENDS
FROM SE GEORGIA OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA INTO THE GULF ALONG
29N90W TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE FOG ARE NW OF THE TROUGH. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR E GULF. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE E GULF GENERATING A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO 26N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CUBA TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
UPPER FLORIDA KEYS E OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF LATE WED AND MOVE NE TO NEAR
PENSACOLA LATE THU. THE LOW WILL ACCELERATE NE OF THE AREA FRI
AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BENIGN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM W CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURE OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN WITH
THE TRADE WINDS MAINLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 70W.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN DIMINISH WED
AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W TO OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
31N61W. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ENTERING NEAR 32N43W AND EXTENDS ALONG
29N47W TO 27N51W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO 26N58W. A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS A MAJOR PORTION OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SPAIN AND
PORTUGAL IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES INTO THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N12W TO 26N26W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 22N36W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 27W. W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS W ATLC N OF 29N MON NIGHT THROUGH
WED. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE W OF 75W THU AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL SHIFT N
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
THE FAR W ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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