[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N19W 3N21W TO 2N30W WHERE
THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 1N35W TO 1N42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM 2N11W 1N16W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF GHANA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 25N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO
OVER THE E GULF. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NE
GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 27N88W. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CUBA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS BETWEEN 80W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH S INTO THE N GULF WED. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W LATE WED AND MOVE
TO NEAR 29N86W LATE THU. THE LOW WILL THEN SHIFT NE OF THE AREA
FRI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTING SE OF THE GULF FRI
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BENIGN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL
HONDURAS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N TO OVER GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OF
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC PRODUCING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN DIMINISH WED AS THE W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BENIGN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA TO
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N63W. A SURFACE
TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N53W TO
26N61W. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS A MAJOR PORTION OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SPAIN
AND PORTUGAL IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES INTO THE E
ATLC NEAR 32N15W ALONG 25N32W TO NEAR 21N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 27W. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON EVENING
THEN WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS W ATLC N OF 29N MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE W OF 75W THU AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IN
THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL SHIFT N OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE THE FAR W ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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