[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI
FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 12N16W INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 6N23W 3N28W
3N33W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N33W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N42W
2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-
1N BETWEEN 7W-21W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO CURRENTLY NEAR 87W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N83W TO 27N90W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NEAR THE AXIS OVER FLORIDA AS WELL AS SE OF THE AXIS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT RANGING FROM 5-10 KT NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KT IS ACROSS THE SE GULF AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE WEST ATLC. SE
FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECT TO DRIFT EAST MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEST ATLC OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SE RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
TODAY DUE TO MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 78W. SOME MODERATE MOISTURE FLOWS AROUND THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS REACH 30
KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS STRONG FLOW WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEAK WHEN THE GRADIENT DECREASES AS
SURFACE PRESSURES LOWER TO THE NORTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL THEN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS OFF
THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 32N75W TO 27N79W ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR JUST
EAST OF IT. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NW
BAHAMAS AND NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR
31N62W. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 65W.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N37W CONTINUING TO
26N50W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 25N56W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EAST OR SOUTH OF THE AXIS.
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND INTO THE
EASTERN ATLC WHERE IT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 17N24W. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N9W TO 27N20W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 24N29W.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALSO REMAINS LONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE REACHING UP TO 150 KT BETWEEN THE
CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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