[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
SENEGAL NEAR 12N17W TO 10N20W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N24W TO 4N30W 3N33W TO 1N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE
EAST OF 10W...TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 30W...TO THE
SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 52W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N55W
10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF 65W...

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN WEST
TEXAS NEAR 32N102W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF COASTAL
WATERS FROM ITS BORDER WITH LOUISIANA TO ITS BORDER WITH MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE SOUTH OF 28N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W
TO 25N75W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH IS
CUTTING ACROSS THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ONLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W AND 27N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 32N
BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...
F0R SOUTHEASTERLY 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF 88W DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N62W...ACROSS THE PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO A 15N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W...
AND EMERGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. COMPARATIVELY DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
TO THE WEST OF 66W. MOISTURE AT MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
IS TO THE EAST OF THE 66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TRINIDAD FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC
WAS 1.02 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...EVENTUALLY REACHING PUERTO RICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...
FOR EASTERLY 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 65W...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 27N37W AND 19N39W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N
BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N26W 28N30W.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 100 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N50W TO 20N36W 23N29W 27N21W
BEYOND 32N17W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N57W
TO 24N72W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ONE AREA OF 20 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 32N26W
28N30W SURFACE TROUGH. THE SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS IS
RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING ACROSS
FLORIDA. THE THIRD AREA IS RELATED TO THE 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 61W WITH TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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