[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 14N17W
TO 10N20W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W TO 3N35W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 9N TO THE
EAST OF 55W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF 65W...

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR
33N103W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS COVERS TEXAS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
AND 99W IN SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO 26N78W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MOSTLY ONLY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N71W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR
26N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND
74W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N88W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
NORTHWARD BEYOND ALABAMA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...F0R SOUTHEASTERLY 20 KNOT
WINDS TO THE WEST OF 86W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N61W...ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 14N67W...TO VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE
WEST OF 67W. MOISTURE AT MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS TO
THE EAST OF THE 67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 57W AND 62W...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VENEZUELA
BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TRINIDAD
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC WAS 1.02 INCHES. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY REACHING
PUERTO RICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR EASTERLY 20 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 65W...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 19N38W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 28W
AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N27W 28N31W 26N37W.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 100 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N50W TO 20N36W 23N29W 27N21W
BEYOND 32N17W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N60W
TO 22N68W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ONE AREA OF 20 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 32N27W
26N37W SURFACE TROUGH. THE SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS IS
RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING ACROSS
FLORIDA. THE THIRD AREA IS RELATED TO THE 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 61W WITH TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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