[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
06N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N25W TO 03N34W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 08W-13W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THAT DRY AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS
N OF 24N E OF 90W. TO THE NORTHEAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 26N82W TO 26N85W. THE
FRONT HAS BECOME VERY WEAK AND DIFFUSE OVER THE GULF WATERS...
HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS NEAR 31N104W AND SUPPORTS A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
WHILE NO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE IDENTIFIED OVER INLAND
TEXAS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAINLY INLAND W OF 96W...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 27N W OF 94W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD TO 25N ALONG 90W. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E
OF 90W...WHILE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15
KT PREVAILS W OF 90W AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N64W TO A BASE OVER NW
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DRY AND STABLE
NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR CONDITIONS W OF 70W THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 69W. SEVERAL OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ISLANDS HAVE REPORTED MORE THAN A TRACE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH BARBADOS
REPORTING 0.43 INCHES AND TRINIDAD REPORTING 1.02 INCHES AS OF
10/1200 UTC. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD HOWEVER IT IS FORECAST TO BE
REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS.
AS A RESULT...INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWARD OVER THE DELMARVA REGION TO A BASE NEAR 30N78W OVER
THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N74W TO 28N78W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST
NEAR 27N80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE AREA FROM 24N-32N W OF 68W TO THE FRONT. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF 65W AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
BY LATE SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 38W-63W
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
NEAR 44N43W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DOMINATES E OF 38W AND SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM SOUTH OF THE LOW NEAR 33N28W TO 29N30W TO 25N39W. WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH...EARLIER
ASCAT PASSES INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH WITH STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE. FINALLY...A LARGE AREA
OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLC BOUNDED BY 27N13W TO 17N53W TO 07N50W TO 08N28W TO 10N14W.
MUCH OF THIS AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUSPENDED DUST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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