[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NEW
GUINEA AT 12N16W CROSSING OVER ATLC WATERS TO 6N25W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 6N25W ALONG 4N32W 2N41W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 22W-25W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. THIS
PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN GULF ALONG 28N81W TO 27N87W. FEW
CLOUDS AND ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG IT. LIGHT
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE EXCEPT NEAR THE
FRONT. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AT 31N106W. NONE OF THE ACTIVITY IS OVER THE GULF
WATERS...BUT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE
PLACING THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN TEXAS..THE SURROUNDING
STATES...AND THE NW GULF. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE OUT THE AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO VENEZUELA. THE
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN PUERTO
RICO AT 18N67W TO N OF COLOMBIA ALONG 16N71W TO 12N74W. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS E OF THE AXIS IMPACTING MANY OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 57W N OF 12N. SEVERAL
ISLANDS HAVE RECEIVED HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN INCLUDING BARBADOS
REPORTING A 24-HR TOTAL OF .43 INCHES...AND TRINIDAD REPORTING
1.02 INCHES. TODAY STORMS WILL LIKELY RAISE THOSE AMOUNTS...AND
DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THESE ISLANDS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE RAIN DURING THIS
TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NE CONUS INTO THE FAR W
ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N75W TO THE FLORIDA COAST AT 28N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N75W TO 27N79W. STRONG SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUING N OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E
ALONG 55W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE S OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN
IS HELPING PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 54W-65W CONTINUING FARTHER INTO THE CARIBBEAN
AND INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC JUST W OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
IT SUPPORTS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
32N25W CONTINUING ALONG 25N30W 22N36W DISSIPATING TO 21N51W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH
TRAILS NW OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N30W 28N36W 26N44W DEPICTING A
SECOND WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 14W SUPPORTS A
VERY WEAK AND NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC AROUND A
1017 MB LOW NEAR 28N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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