[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
TO 4N11W AND 2N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N17W TO 2N21W
AND 3N24W 4N25W 1N33W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ ALONG 8N22W 2N25W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 4W AND
6W...FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 27W AND 28W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N
BETWEEN 30W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N60W
13N55W 8N46W 5N35W 10N14W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF 70W...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST...TO THE NORTH OF 30N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE EAST
OF 84W...AND THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY WATERS TO THE NORTH OF
ANDROS ISLAND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...F0R
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF 89W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 25N67W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 20N63W 15N70W 10N76W. MOISTURE AT MANY LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS TO THE EAST OF THE 20N63W 10N76W LINE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN 60W AND 66W FROM VENEZUELA
TO 20N. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 20N62W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...TO 16N69W...AND
THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 74W...AND IN THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 84W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 25N67W...ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 61W
AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 20N39W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W
TO 30N24W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING ALONG 30N24W 25N30W
23N35W 20N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N22W 27N25W 22N35W 21N50W 18N58W TO 10N64W
ALONG THE VENEZUELA COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME
AREA OF CLOUDINESS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ONE AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 23N35W 20N50W
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THE SECOND AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IS RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA. THE THIRD AREA IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 50W WITH TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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