[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 14N17W TO
9N20W AND 4N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 9N35W FROM 5N23W TO 3N30W
1N35W...AND THEN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W IN
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
TO THE NORTH OF 2N BETWEEN 1W AND 5W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
3N15W AND 4N25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST...TO THE NORTH OF 30N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 27N92W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
EAST OF 87W...AND ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...TO THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF COAST...TO 20N97W IN COASTAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...
F0R 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF 94W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N68W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 20N63W 15N70W 10N76W. MOISTURE AT MANY LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS TO THE EAST OF THE 20N63W 10N76W LINE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...THAT WAS OCCURRING FROM 7N TO THE COAST BETWEEN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA ALONG 62W AND 78W IN WESTERN COLOMBIA
NEAR THE BORDER WITH PANAMA AT 09/2015 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND
DIMINISHED WITH TIME. REMNANT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS FROM
VENEZUELA ALONG 67W AND 72W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 19N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
15N68W AND TO 12N70W IN NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 64W AND 72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...TO THE
NORTH OF 30N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 27N92W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 77W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 25N68W...BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG
32N66W 30N64W 27N63W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W 26N37W 21N40W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W
TO 30N30W. THE FRONT STARTS TO DISSIPATED FROM 30N30W TO 25N36W
23N42W 22N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE THAT IS FROM
11N62W ALONG THE VENEZUELA COAST...WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 11N67W IN COASTAL
VENEZUELA...TO 15N58W...WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N53W
20N40W 24N28W BEYOND 32N21W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SAME AREA OF CLOUDINESS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ONE
AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET IS
RELATED TO THE 27N35W 22N46W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND AREA
OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IS RELATED TO
THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS STILL TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
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