[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NEW
GUINEA AT 12N16W CROSSING OVER ATLC WATERS TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N22W ALONG 4N33W 2N45W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
3N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SID
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN TEXAS NEAR 33N100W. AS OF 1500 UTC...A SQUALL LINE IS
ANALYZED FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA AT 29N91W ALONG 27N92W 26N94W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THIS AXIS WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING IN BOTH DIRECTIONS FROM THE SQUALL AXIS AS
WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
ANALYZED ALONG THE SE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST ALONG 28N96W 25N98W
19N95W. AREAS ALONG THIS TROUGH ARE MOSTLY DRY. MOST OF THE ERN
GULF IS ALSO DRY ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE E SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN AND SE CONUS. A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS S FLORIDA...AS OF 1500
UTC...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE WHICH WILL DRAG THE
AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN GULF THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF HISPANIOLA...AND N OF PANAMA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 64W. THIS
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 58W-62W. A
SIMILAR PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPACTING THIS AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW AND THESE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO GET HIT BY MOIST CONDITIONS.
BARBADOS AND TRINIDAD BOTH REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER .5
INCHES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
AREA...FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF A STRONG SHOWER MOVES OVER ONE OF
THE ISLANDS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THIS
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR CONDITIONS REMAINING OVER
THE WRN CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W CONTINUING TO
THE NW BAHAMAS AT 27N79W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS S FLORIDA...AS OF 1500 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 74W. ANOTHER
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...UNASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...IS N
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 52W-59W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 45N39W. FARTHER E...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS SUPPORTING A 1012
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 36N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM REMAINS ALONG 31N25W 26N30W. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS 100 NM
SE OF THE AXIS. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND ERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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