[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO
6N19W 5N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N23W TO 3N30W TO 4N34W AND
4N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 2N5W AND FROM 4N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA
BETWEEN 4W AND 7W...FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 21W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 27W AND
50W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN MEXICO LEADS TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N...AND THEN BEYOND THE
MONA PASSAGE...AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 60W. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W TO
28N95W...AND THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD ARIZONA. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM 20N TO 22N.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS FROM 21N TO
26N TO THE WEST OF 90W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF 13N...AND BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN AND AROUND JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
STARTS NEAR 11N67W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEYOND 14N60W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THE CLOUDINESS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 08/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE
WAS 12.32 INCHES...AND THE TOTAL FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING
AT 09/0000 UTC WAS 6.11 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N57W...ACROSS ANGUILLA IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING TO 12N70W AT THE
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...
FOR 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 65W AT
48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. MULTIPLE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.
THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N31W 28N40W 25N50W 24N54W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 24N54W TO 26N63W AND TO A TRIPLE POINT THAT IS
NEAR 28N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT
TO 26N71W AND 28N77W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N70W TO THE TRIPLE POINT.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N28W 27N40W 25N50W
26N60W 30N66W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N FROM
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 75W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO A 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N27W...TO 20N40W 18N50W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 11N67W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...
THROUGH 14N60W 21N44W 26N30W BEYOND 32N22W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA OF CLOUDINESS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. ONE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 11 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 32N31W 26N63W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N70W. THE THIRD AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 FEET IS RELATED TO THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY WILL THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN
24 HOURS. A FOURTH AREA INVOLVES 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE
TRADEWIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT















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