[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO 10N19W AND 5N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N24W
TO 3N40W TO 3N47W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N
BETWEEN 2W AND 5W AND IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
IVORY COAST...FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 9W AND 15W IN COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM LIBERIA TO SIERRA LEONE...AND FROM 2N TO 4N
BETWEEN 19W AND 21W... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN
27W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN MEXICO LEADS TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 15N IN HONDURAS BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W. A COLD FRONT IS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W TO 28N95W...AND THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 24N98W ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N IN HONDURAS BEYOND THE
MONA PASSAGE...AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN AND AROUND JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA.
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 72W AND 75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
STARTS NEAR 11N67W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEYOND 14N60W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THE CLOUDINESS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 08/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE
WAS 12.32 INCHES...AND THE TOTAL FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING
AT 09/0000 UTC WAS 6.11 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N56W...ACROSS ANGUILLA IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING TO 12N70W AT THE
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. MULTIPLE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.
THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N33W 28N40W 25N50W 25N60W TO 26N63W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N63W TO A TRIPLE POINT THAT
IS NEAR 28N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT TO 26N71W AND 29N77W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM A
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N70W TO THE TRIPLE POINT.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N35W 25N50W 25N57W
29N66W 31N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 66W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N16W
TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N24W...TO
20N33W 18N45W AND 19N54W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR
11N67W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...THROUGH 14N60W 21N44W 26N30W
BEYOND 32N22W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA OF
CLOUDINESS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ONE AREA OF 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 13 FEET IS RELATED TO THE
32N33W 26N63W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N70W. THE THIRD AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET IS RELATED TO THE CURRENT GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY WILL THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN IN 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
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