[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 13N17W CROSSING OVER ATLC WATERS ALONG 7N19W 5N22W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N22W ALONG 5N27W 2N35W 2N42W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1N51W. A LARGE BURST OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
16W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 26W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC NEAR 9N96W
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE DRY ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NRN TEXAS IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES OVER THE NRN GULF FROM NEAR MOBILE
ALABAMA AT 30N88W TO NE MEXICO ALONG 27N92W 26N98W. THE FRONT IS
FAIRLY WEAK OVER WATER WITH ONLY 10-15 KT WINDS BEHIND IT. RADAR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS ISOLATED PATCHES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 89W WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NEAR THE SRN TEXAS COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE
MEXICO COASTLINE FROM 24N97W TO 20N97W IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN
95W-97W. MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EWD REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND E
OF THE BASIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THE FRONT AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE SW GULF AND
TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 77W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER
JAMAICA AND HONDURAS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT 5-10 KT
NE-E WINDS COVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS ALONG 17N65W TO
11N70W PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 62W-66W. A GROUP OF SHOWERS IS ALSO E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN RECEIVING
LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND A
SINGLE STRONG STORM OVER ANY OF THE ISLANDS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLOODING. THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT WWD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
ERN CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG 33N69W TO
20N76W SUPPORTING A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N70W. A
STATIONARY FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW ALONG 29N67W 27N72W
29N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AXIS AS
WELL AS TO THE W N OF 27N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 26N42W 24N55W BECOMING
STATIONARY AND CONNECTING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AT
29N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 8N57W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO SPAIN. THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N24W. MOIST SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO E OF THE AZORES
ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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