[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051126
TWDAT

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 4N20W TO 2N30N TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 13W-18W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N77W
PRODUCING 5-10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N89W 16N90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER E TEXAS AND N MEXICO.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N71W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 70W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...EL
SALVADOR...AND SW HONDURAS. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N62W TO 16N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER S... SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 80W TO INCLUDE
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. SW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO RIDGING. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N77W. A 1011
MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
S FROM THE LOW TO 23N69W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW
TO 29N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
30N42W TO 27N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S FROM 22N60W TO 20N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N26W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-70W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net