[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 4N20W TO 2N30N TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 11W-15W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N77W
PRODUCING 5-10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF SINCE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE THE E GULF HAS WEAKENED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N88W 17N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE GULF WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER E TEXAS AND N MEXICO. EXPECT...LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 72W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER EL SALVADOR AND SW HONDURAS. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N61W TO 18N63W TO
16N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.
FURTHER S... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N
E OF 80W TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A RELATIVELY LAX
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN DUE TO RIDGING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N77W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
30N44W TO 27N50W TO 27N60W DISSIPATING TO 25N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FURTHER S FROM 23N57W TO 20N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 26N24W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-70W SUPPORTING
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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