[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 5N15W AND 4N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N21W TO
5N35W 6N45W AND 6N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 8N13W 6N33W 7N44W 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE EAST OF 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 98W/99W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO BETWEEN 87W AND
104W.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF FLORIDA. MUCH
OF THIS NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N75W.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS EXISTED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 3 DAYS OR SO HAS BEEN
SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE TROUGH NOW APPEARS TO BE
DIRECTLY ON TOP OF FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH
NOW REACHES JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF
A COMPARATIVELY MUCH LARGER AREA OF OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
IS RELATED TO THE 25N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
A 30N77W 27N85W 22N97W RIDGE. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT REACHES NEAR 15N75W. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. WHAT RESEMBLES THE TROUGH THAT COVERED FLORIDA
24 HOURS AGO NOW COVERS THE BAHAMAS...AND WHAT AMOUNTS TO
A TROUGH BASE PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 15N75W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TO 16N67W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/1200 UTC ARE 0.72 FOR SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO...AND 0.53 FOR SAINT THOMAS. RAINSHOWERS FROM
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN THE AREA OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS HELPED TO GIVE A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN BARBADOS OF
1.24 INCHES...AND 0.47 INCHES IN TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W TO 9N79W AND BEYOND 11N85W
IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO...FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W
AND 72W AT 05/0845 UTC. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE
SHEARED THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WAS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 69W AND 75W TO THE SOUTH OF
14N. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN
IN THE SAME AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL
WATERS OF PANAMA BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF 50W. PART OF THIS AREA IS COVERED BY THE
INDIVIDUAL TROUGH THAT SPANS THE BAHAMAS...THE SAME TROUGH THAT
COVERED FLORIDA 24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N59W. THIS CENTER HAS REMAINED
INTACT MORE OR LESS SINCE IT DEVELOPED ONE WEEK AGO IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W.
THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N76W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N49W AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 30N40W TO 27N46W. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N58W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 28N50W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 24N63W AND 23N69W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 34W
AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH
15N45W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N23W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT TWO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING TO 12 FEET. ONE AREA HAS TO DO WITH THE 31N39W 27N58W
23N69W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OTHER AREA IS BETWEEN 35W AND
44W...WITH TRADEWIND FLOW...FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net