[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
TO 06N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N20W TO 02N31W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 02W-06W...AND FROM 02N-08N
BETWEEN 13W-25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 33W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NE GULF ALONG 30N90W TO 25N85W. WHILE
VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
30N87W TO 23N83W...INCLUDING THE NEAR COASTAL ZONES IMMEDIATELY
E OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STABLE NW
FLOW ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE W OF 94W...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OBSERVED IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT W OF 90W. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING E
OF 70W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER TWO NOTABLE AREAS OF
THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST AREA IS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTENSION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 21N BETWEEN 80W-85W. FARTHER EAST...THE OTHER
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 20N61W TO 16N66W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N E OF 67W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING FORECAST TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND E OF 72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC AND THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF AT THE SURFACE WITH A 1022 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N77W AND A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED FARTHER
EAST NEAR 29N66W. CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED OVER THE REGION N OF 20N
W OF 60W. FARTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THAT IS RESULTING IN A
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
FROM 30N43W SW TO 22N57W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
32N40W TO 20N60W. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN SEA REGION WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF 20N
BETWEEN 57W-66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 26N27W. OF NOTE...EXAMINING EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT CIMSS SAHARAN AIR
LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT...A LARGE AREA OF DUST IS OBSERVED
EXTENDING OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA. THE SUSPENDED DUST IS
MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
20N16W TO 12N33W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND
ENCOMPASSES A LARGER OVERALL AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLC FROM 10N-23N E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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